RESEARCHING THE COGNITIVE MAPS BY SIMULATION MODELING
Kazymyr Volodymyr, Chernihiv National University of Technology (95 Shevchenka Str., 14027 Chernihiv, Ukraine)
Posadska Alina, Chernihiv National University of Technology (95 Shevchenka Str., 14027 Chernihiv, Ukraine)
Urgency of the research. The task of software development that are able fully realizing the opportunities of simulation modeling systems to obtain statistical evaluations of quantitative system characteristics represented conceptually as cognitive maps, is urgent.
Target setting. The cognitive modeling method is suggested for using for the analysis and forecasting the object of research behavior at researching the complex systems and processes that are difficult formalized. This forecast is usually done using specially developed software by simulation modeling. However, their capabilities are severely limited in terms of building models, their verification and conducting model experiments, and relatively comparison of alternatives in decision making that may be assessed taking into account possible risks.
Actual scientific researches and issues analysis. The main theoretical principles of building of cognitive maps, including fuzzy cognitive maps, are formulated in latest research. Numerical examples of their use in the social-economic, ecological, political and other domains are given.
Uninvestigatigated parts of general matters defining. However, the issue of forecasting factors state changes, especially in the conditions of uncertainty, is not enough covered because of the limited capabilities of existing software of cognitive analysis in terms of forecasting system in dynamics.
The research objective. Aim of the paper is the substantiation of the approach to the researching cognitive maps for the forecasting system states that change under the influence of factors, which is based on the usage of a distributed system of simulation modeling.
The statement of basic materials. The cognitive map is an oriented graph, where weight are match the edges. Distributed system of simulation modeling EMS is proposed for forecasting system states that changing under the influence of factors. During the simulation, cognitive map is considered as a conceptual model, and control E-nets are used to its formalization. In addition, an example of the proposed approach for forecasting the changes of ecosystem states, including under the influence of alternative management decisions, is given.
Conclusions. Information technology of the proposed approach is based on using the formal apparatus of control E Nets and provides redirecting process of research of cognitive maps from analytical calculated comparisons to statistical estimation of system parameters.
fuzzy cognitive maps, cognitive modeling, forecasting the system behavior, E-nets, decision making
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