RESEARCHING THE COGNITIVE MAPS BY SIMULATION MODELING

Author:

Kazymyr Volodymyr, Chernihiv National University of Technology (95 Shevchenka Str., 14027 Chernihiv, Ukraine)

Posadska Alina, Chernihiv National University of Technology (95 Shevchenka Str., 14027 Chernihiv, Ukraine)

Language: ukrainian

Annotation:

Urgency of the research. The task of software development that are able fully realizing the opportunities of simulation modeling systems to obtain statistical evaluations of quantitative system characteristics represented conceptually as cognitive maps, is urgent.

Target setting. The cognitive modeling method is suggested for using for the analysis and forecasting the object of research behavior at researching the complex systems and processes that are difficult formalized. This forecast is usually done using specially developed software by simulation modeling. However, their capabilities are severely limited in terms of building models, their verification and conducting model experiments, and relatively comparison of alternatives in decision making that may be assessed taking into account possible risks.

Actual scientific researches and issues analysis. The main theoretical principles of building of cognitive maps, including fuzzy cognitive maps, are formulated in latest research. Numerical examples of their use in the social-economic, ecological, political and other domains are given.

Uninvestigatigated parts of general matters defining. However, the issue of forecasting factors state changes, especially in the conditions of uncertainty, is not enough covered because of the limited capabilities of existing software of cognitive analysis in terms of forecasting system in dynamics.

The research objective. Aim of the paper is the substantiation of the approach to the researching cognitive maps for the forecasting system states that change under the influence of factors, which is based on the usage of a distributed system of simulation modeling.

The statement of basic materials. The cognitive map is an oriented graph, where weight are match the edges. Distributed system of simulation modeling EMS is proposed for forecasting system states that changing under the influence of factors. During the simulation, cognitive map is considered as a conceptual model, and control E-nets are used to its formalization. In addition, an example of the proposed approach for forecasting the changes of ecosystem states, including under the influence of alternative management decisions, is given.

Conclusions. Information technology of the proposed approach is based on using the formal apparatus of control E Nets and provides redirecting process of research of cognitive maps from analytical calculated comparisons to statistical estimation of system parameters.

Key words:

fuzzy cognitive maps, cognitive modeling, forecasting the system behavior, E-nets, decision making

References:

1. Kulinich, A.A. (2010). Komp'juternye sistemy modelirovanija kognitivnyh kart: podhody i metody [Computer systems for modeling cognitive maps: approaches and methods]. Probl. upravl. - Management issues,Moskva, № 3, pp. 2–16 (in Russian).

2. Silov, B.V. (1995). Prinjatie strategicheskih reshenij v nechѐtkoj obstanovke [Making strategic decisions in an unfavorable environment]. M.: INPRO-RES, 228 p. (in Russian).

3. Avdeeva, Z.K., Kovriga, S.V., Makarenko, D.I. (2007). Kognitivnoe modelirovanie dlja reshenija zadach upravlenija slabostrukturirovannymi sistemami (situacijami) [Cognitive modeling for solving problems of managing badly structured systems (situations)]. UBS, Issue 16, pp. 26–39 (in Russian).

4. Gorelova, G.V., Mel'nik, Je.V. (2013). Imitacionnoe modelirovanie variantov rezervirovanija v raspredelennyh informacionno-upravljajushhih sistemah s decentralizovannoj organizaciej [Simulation modeling of backup options in distributed information-control systems with a decentralized organization]. Izvestija JuFU. Tehnicheskie nauki - News of SFedU. Technical sciences, № 3 (140), pp.184-193 (in Russian).

5. Kognitivnye tehnologii dlja podderzhki prinjatija upravlencheskih reshenij [Cognitive technologies to support management decision-making] (2017). Retrieved from: http://www.iis.ru/events/19981130/maximov.ru.html.

6. Hozhyi, O.P. (2013). Pobudova dynamichnykh modelei na osnovi nechitkykh kohnityvnykh kart dlia vyrishennia zadach stsenarnoho planuvannia [Dynamic modeling based on fuzzy cognitive maps for solving problems scenario planning]. Visnyk Lvivskoho derzhavnoho universytetu bezpeky zhyttiediialnosti - Bulletin of Lviv State University of Life Safety, № 7, pp. 13-17 (in Ukrainian).

7. Verhunova, I.M. (2013). Systemne modeliuvannia v ekonomitsi (blok 2) (dlia studentiv za napriamom pidhotovky 8.04030203 – sotsialna informatyka) [System modeling in the economy (Block 2) (for students in the direction of 8.04030203 - Social Informatics)]. K., FOP Korzun D.Iu, 106 p. (in Ukrainian).

8. Kajashev, A.I., Sharipov, M.I., Murav'jova, E.A., Bagrov, K.A. (2014). Kognitivnye karty s interpretaciej konceptov i svjazej mezhdu nimi sovokupnost'ju argumentov dvuznachnoj logiki [Cognitive maps with interpretation of concepts and connections between them by a set of arguments of two-valued logic]. V sbornike: XII vserossijskoe soveshhanie po problemam upravlenija vspu - In the collection: XII All-Russian meeting on problems of control of flap, Institut problem upravlenija im. V.A. Trapeznikova RAN, pp. 4126-4131 (in Russian).

9. Kazymyr, V.V., Sira, H.A., Mushketyk, I.I. (2011). Rozpodilena systema imitatsiynoho modelyuvannya EMS [Distributed simulation system EMS]. Visnyk Chernihivskoho derzhavnoho tekhnolohichnoho universytetu - Visnyk of Chernihiv State Technological University, no.3, pp. 144 – 153 (in Ukrainian).

10. Roberts, F.S. (1986). Diskretnye matematicheskie modeli s prilozhenijami k biologicheskim i jekologicheskim zadacham [Discrete mathematical models with applications to biological and ecological problems]. M.: Nauka, 496 p. (in Russian).

11. Kazymyr, V.V., Posadska, A.S. (2016). Dynamichna otsinka ryzyku vykonannia planu robit metodom imitatsiinoho modeliuvannia [Dynamic risk assessment of the work plan implementation by simulation modeling].Tekhnichni nauky i tekhnolohii: naukovyi zhurnal - Technical sciences and Technologies, Chernih.nats.tekhnol.un-t, Chernihiv, № 3(5), pp. 113-122 (in Ukrainian).

Download